Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two US Opens. She arrives to defend the third having gone since the beginning of April without reaching a final, on a record of 17 wins and seven losses.
The number that will worry her more is a smaller one. In the third round at Cincinnati she led Sára Bejlek 5-1 in the first-set tie-break, and 4-1 in the second set, and lost in straight sets. Under any ordinary reading of a world number one against an unheralded opponent, that match does not get away.
What the losing looks like
It is not the errors on their own. It is the indecision in front of them — the half-second of choosing that was not there eighteen months ago, and the tension that follows it into the next point. Sabalenka has had bad weeks before. She has not had a five-month stretch where the tennis looked like a question she was asking rather than an answer she was giving.
The players waiting for her
Coco Gauff arrives in the opposite condition. She beat Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati final for her first title of 2026, timed as well as a title can be timed. Arthur Fils won the men’s event at the same tournament.
Flushing Meadows has been Sabalenka’s best surface and her best fortnight two years running. It is now also her last chance of a major this season, which is not the frame of mind anyone would choose for a title defence.
